Tuesday’s papal conclave has some people speculating that the next pope could, for the first time, hail from a continent that isn’t Europe.

There are a number of ways to guess (or not guess) those odds, as Bernhard Warner outlined in a great explainer for Businessweek last week. But one sure influence on the next pope is the rising number of Catholics in Latin America, Africa and Asia: According to Pew, nearly 4 in 10 Catholics live in Latin America and the Caribbean, while only 25 percent live in Europe.