WASHINGTON ― U.S. intelligence analysts, like most American observers, have often referred to the process unfolding in the Middle East as the “Arab Spring,” with its implicit message of democratic rebirth and freedom. But some senior analysts are said to have argued for a more neutral term, such as “Arab Transition” ― which conveys the essential truth that nobody can predict just where this upheaval is heading.

The uncertain transition rumbled on in Syria: President Bashar al-Assad’s hold on power appeared to weaken, with his military stretched to the breaking point in an attempt to control the protests. President Obama, evidently sensing that the endgame is near, called on Assad to step down.

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