BOOSTERS of the United Arab Emirates describe its political system as a rare success story in the Arab world. Formally, the ruling families of the seven member-emirates share power under a federal president, who is appointed by consensus among them. Individually they are absolute monarchies. Yet local power is, in effect, checked by the dominance of Abu Dhabi, by far the biggest and richest emirate, and also moderated by informal Bedouin traditions, such as the regular public councils where citizens may address their rulers face to face. “It’s a Bedouinocracy,” quips a government adviser, depicting the tribally rooted political system as idiosyncratic but enjoying a level of legitimacy rare in the region.

The Arab Spring has scarcely ruffled the immensely wealthy country, yet some Emiratis worry that their rulers perceive a danger of regime-threatening disarray—and are overreacting. Particularly alarming for the government is the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood in countries such as Egypt, Tunisia and perhaps eventually Syria, as well as in fellow monarchies Jordan and Morocco, where Islamists are the largest political forces. Lurking in the background, too, are concerns about the possibility of a war on Iran, which has vowed to retaliate against Gulf states that are allied to America if its nuclear facilities are attacked. Such anxieties, some Emiratis say, have caused a chill in what has long been a relatively tolerant society.

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